April 2, 2025, was declared Liberation Day by President Donald Trump—a momentous occasion where he unveiled sweeping tariffs aimed at foreign nations. In his dramatic announcement from the White House, Trump proclaimed, “April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to 'Make America Wealthy Again.’”
The tariffs, designed to protect American industries, imposed a minimum 10% duty on most imported goods, with some countries facing staggering rates—China at 54%, Vietnam at 46%, and the European Union at 20%. While the reasoning behind these customized figures remained vague, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) later released an official explanation.
According to the USTR, the tariffs were calculated based on a simple formula: each country’s trade surplus with the U.S. was divided by its total exports, and the result was halved to produce the final tariff rate. But as it turns out, this methodology might be more political theater than economic science.
A Twitter User Exposes the ‘Extraordinary Nonsense’
Enter James Surowiecki, a financial journalist and former writer for The New Yorker. After scrutinizing the numbers, he posted a thread on Twitter that left economists and policy analysts stunned.
“They didn’t actually calculate tariff rates and non-tariff barriers, as they claim. Instead, they just took our trade deficit with each country and divided it by that country’s exports to us,” Surowiecki explained.
He used Indonesia as an example:
‘Deceptive’ Math or Deliberate Spin?
Surowiecki’s revelation quickly gained traction online, with financial experts expressing disbelief. “You cannot be serious,” tweeted Spencer Hakimian, Founder of Tolou Capital Management. Others described the approach as “deceptive,” pointing out that Trump’s administration had ignored trade surpluses in services, painting an incomplete—and arguably misleading—picture of international trade.
Trump’s tariffs were already controversial, but this discovery added a new layer of skepticism. Were these economic policies genuinely designed to rebalance trade, or were they a numbers game meant to justify a political agenda?
Netizens React
One user tried to defend Trump's plan stating that it is not a formula exercise: " It’s not a formula exercise. It’s a persuasion tool. Trump wants to charge everybody and encourage them to either reduce their tariffs (whatever they are) or/and bring manufacturing into the USA. Vietnam and Israel is an example of what he wants to accomplish."
Another user just questioned the credibility of the planners : " Who let these guys run the biggest economy in the world?"
A X (formerly Twitter) user affirmed the fake tariff claim writing, " I just spot-checked and it looks correct that the fake tariffs are just trade deficit percentages. It seems like Trump has no actual economists on his team who could explain basic concepts to him like comparative advantage and opportunity cost."
While the administration stands by its calculations, one thing is clear: if a Twitter user can unravel the math behind these tariffs in a few tweets, the world of international trade may be in for a very bumpy ride.
The tariffs, designed to protect American industries, imposed a minimum 10% duty on most imported goods, with some countries facing staggering rates—China at 54%, Vietnam at 46%, and the European Union at 20%. While the reasoning behind these customized figures remained vague, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) later released an official explanation.
According to the USTR, the tariffs were calculated based on a simple formula: each country’s trade surplus with the U.S. was divided by its total exports, and the result was halved to produce the final tariff rate. But as it turns out, this methodology might be more political theater than economic science.
Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.
— James Surowiecki (@JamesSurowiecki) April 2, 2025
So we… https://t.co/PBjF8xmcuv
A Twitter User Exposes the ‘Extraordinary Nonsense’
Enter James Surowiecki, a financial journalist and former writer for The New Yorker. After scrutinizing the numbers, he posted a thread on Twitter that left economists and policy analysts stunned.
“They didn’t actually calculate tariff rates and non-tariff barriers, as they claim. Instead, they just took our trade deficit with each country and divided it by that country’s exports to us,” Surowiecki explained.
He used Indonesia as an example:
- The U.S. has a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia.
- Indonesia exports $28 billion worth of goods to the U.S.
- Divide $17.9 billion by $28 billion, and you get… 64%.
This is truly amazing. The Deputy White House Press Secretary is claiming that I'm wrong, and that the "tariff rates" on Trump's chart were calculated by "literally" measuring every country's tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers.
— James Surowiecki (@JamesSurowiecki) April 3, 2025
To prove it, he screenshots the formula the USTR… pic.twitter.com/g75FreEPbv
‘Deceptive’ Math or Deliberate Spin?
Surowiecki’s revelation quickly gained traction online, with financial experts expressing disbelief. “You cannot be serious,” tweeted Spencer Hakimian, Founder of Tolou Capital Management. Others described the approach as “deceptive,” pointing out that Trump’s administration had ignored trade surpluses in services, painting an incomplete—and arguably misleading—picture of international trade.
Trump’s tariffs were already controversial, but this discovery added a new layer of skepticism. Were these economic policies genuinely designed to rebalance trade, or were they a numbers game meant to justify a political agenda?
Netizens React
One user tried to defend Trump's plan stating that it is not a formula exercise: " It’s not a formula exercise. It’s a persuasion tool. Trump wants to charge everybody and encourage them to either reduce their tariffs (whatever they are) or/and bring manufacturing into the USA. Vietnam and Israel is an example of what he wants to accomplish."
Another user just questioned the credibility of the planners : " Who let these guys run the biggest economy in the world?"
A X (formerly Twitter) user affirmed the fake tariff claim writing, " I just spot-checked and it looks correct that the fake tariffs are just trade deficit percentages. It seems like Trump has no actual economists on his team who could explain basic concepts to him like comparative advantage and opportunity cost."
While the administration stands by its calculations, one thing is clear: if a Twitter user can unravel the math behind these tariffs in a few tweets, the world of international trade may be in for a very bumpy ride.
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