Who Is 'Fredi9999'? Mysterious Trader Bets Millions On Polymarket Backing Trump's Win

Fredi9999, an anonymous online trader, is making waves in the presidential betting market by placing millions of dollars on former President Donald Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. Less than three weeks remain until Election Day, and surveys in key battleground states have the two candidates deadlocked. But the virtual betting markets, where people have wagered millions on the result of the election, are presently tilting toward Trump. As of Wednesday, Trump had a 60% probability of winning, compared to Harris's 40%, according to Polymarket, an offshore political betting site that receives some funding from Peter Thiel. This change occurs as a result of Fredi9999, who signed up for the site in June 2024 and has over 15 million shares, or around $8.7 million, in wagers on Trump. Additionally, the trader has roughly 1.5 million shares on Trump winning Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state, and over 3 million shares on Trump winning the popular vote. These posts are worth $14 million in total.

Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based platform that is unaffected by US authorities, lets users maintain their anonymity. Once the account creation date is reached, no more identifying information is shown in Fredi9999's profile. The trader allegedly regularly wagers $500 or more, with the most recent bets made on Wednesday morning. American University political betting specialist Laura Beers proposes that these big bets may be explained by a number of factors. She points out that some gamblers would protect themselves against potential harm to their businesses from a Trump administration. Beers cites comparable election market strategies employed by British gamblers in the early 20th century. As an alternative, she suggests that Fredi9999 may be trying to influence market prices in order to make money off such abrupt shifts.Though they were just authorized in the US, political betting markets are still divisive. Concerns about the possibility of market manipulation have already been voiced by the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission. Beers speculates that by portraying Harris as the underdog, Fredi9999 may be trying to tip the odds in Trump's favor in an effort to change public opinion or energize Harris supporters. This worry is also expressed by economics expert Rajiv Sethi, who contends that the trader's actions might skew Polymarket's forecast accuracy. Sethi outlines a purchase order technique in a Substack article from October 9th that aims to stabilize Trump's contract pricing. According to his conjectures, Fredi9999 may either have a strong belief in Trump's prospects or be trying to overstate them in order to boost volunteers and campaign donations.The perspective is comparable on other betting sites. Trump has a 55 percent probability compared to Harris's 45 percent on Kalshi, a regulated market accessible to American dealers. Trump's prospects of winning have increased, according to Forbes, since Elon Musk endorsed Polymarket. In addition to wagering on Trump, Fredi9999 has made investments in contracts endorsing Republican politicians such as former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. However, by the time this profile surfaced on the site, both had withdrawn from consideration for president. The contest is still tight according to surveys, despite the betting market's slants. Harris led by 2.4 points according to FiveThirtyEight's polling average on Tuesday; this is a little less than her advantage of 2.6 points from a month ago. The contest between Trump and Harris is still one of the most unexpected in recent memory as the election draws near. This trader's identity and motivations are still unknown. Her name is Fredi9999. The impact on the market is evident, regardless of whether the large bets are the result of insider information, a sincere conviction in Trump's triumph, or an effort to influence public opinion. The political community is closely monitoring the money moving through these betting markets as Election Day draws closer since the stakes are quite high.