More than half of international graduate students and postdoctoral fellows currently studying in the US say they would have chosen not to enrol in the first place if access to H-1B work visas were determined by wage levels. According to a survey conducted by the Institute for Progress and NAFSA: Association of International Educators, 53% of respondents indicated they would not have come to the US under a wage-based H-1B allocation system.
The survey, which polled 1,039 current F-1 and J-1 visa holders across a range of institutions, highlights the central role of post-study work pathways in student decision-making. The results also point to potential risks for the US research and innovation ecosystem if proposed H-1B policy changes are implemented.
H-1B visa changes could reshape graduate and postdoc plans
Among the current student respondents, 36% reported they would “definitely” try to stay in the US after their studies, and 28% said they would “probably” try. However, when asked how their plans might change under a wage-prioritised H-1B system, many reconsidered.
• 48% of master's students who were initially planning to stay said they would not do so under a wage-based system.
• 52% of PhD students currently planning to stay reported they would change their decision.
• 38% of postdoctoral fellows said they would no longer try to stay if H-1Bs were allocated by wage levels.
These figures suggest that H-1B wage-level changes could significantly reduce the retention of US-trained international researchers.
Impact of wage-based H-1B allocation on students intending to stay in the US
Source: Institute for Progress and NAFSA: Association of International Educators, as reported in their August–September 2025 survey of international students , prospective students, and H-1B employers.
Employers confirm student dependency on H-1B pipeline
A companion H-1B Employer Survey, conducted in the same period, gathered responses from 75 employers across various sectors. Of the cap-subject employers, 63% said at least half of their initial H-1B petitions were on behalf of international students at US universities.
For cap-exempt employers, such as higher education institutions, 56% reported similar reliance on F-1 graduates.
Employer reliance on US international graduates for H-1B roles
Source: Institute for Progress and NAFSA: Association of International Educators, as reported in their August–September 2025 survey of international students, prospective students, and H-1B employers.
Furthermore, a large portion of these applications are filed at entry-level wage classifications. Among cap-subject employers, 46% said that at least one-quarter of their petitions for international students were at Wage Level 1. For petitions on behalf of workers with US advanced degrees, 41% of respondents reported using Level 1 wages in at least a quarter of cases.
Prospective students also deterred by H-1B wage rules
In a related Prospective Students Survey of 611 potential applicants, 6% fewer respondents said they would enrol in US programmes if H-1Bs were awarded by wage level. The effect was more pronounced among those considering bachelor’s and master’s degrees, where 7% reported they would be likely not to enrol under the proposed system. Among prospective PhD students, the deterrent was 2%.
Change in likelihood to enrol under wage-based H-1B system
Source: Institute for Progress and NAFSA: Association of International Educators, as reported in their August–September 2025 survey of international students, prospective students, and H-1B employers.
Survey sample skews toward STEM, PhDs, and large institutions
Of the 1,039 respondents in the Current Students Survey, 49% were PhD candidates, and 26% were postdoctoral researchers. A significant number came from STEM fields: 35% were in physical or natural sciences, 19% in biological and biomedical sciences, and 16% in engineering.
Respondents were enrolled across diverse institutional types, with 27% from private and 73% from public universities. Institutional sizes were reported as 7% small, 38% medium, and 55% large.
The survey, which polled 1,039 current F-1 and J-1 visa holders across a range of institutions, highlights the central role of post-study work pathways in student decision-making. The results also point to potential risks for the US research and innovation ecosystem if proposed H-1B policy changes are implemented.
H-1B visa changes could reshape graduate and postdoc plans
Among the current student respondents, 36% reported they would “definitely” try to stay in the US after their studies, and 28% said they would “probably” try. However, when asked how their plans might change under a wage-prioritised H-1B system, many reconsidered.
• 48% of master's students who were initially planning to stay said they would not do so under a wage-based system.
• 52% of PhD students currently planning to stay reported they would change their decision.
• 38% of postdoctoral fellows said they would no longer try to stay if H-1Bs were allocated by wage levels.
These figures suggest that H-1B wage-level changes could significantly reduce the retention of US-trained international researchers.
Impact of wage-based H-1B allocation on students intending to stay in the US
Source: Institute for Progress and NAFSA: Association of International Educators, as reported in their August–September 2025 survey of international students , prospective students, and H-1B employers.
Employers confirm student dependency on H-1B pipeline
A companion H-1B Employer Survey, conducted in the same period, gathered responses from 75 employers across various sectors. Of the cap-subject employers, 63% said at least half of their initial H-1B petitions were on behalf of international students at US universities.
For cap-exempt employers, such as higher education institutions, 56% reported similar reliance on F-1 graduates.
Employer reliance on US international graduates for H-1B roles
Source: Institute for Progress and NAFSA: Association of International Educators, as reported in their August–September 2025 survey of international students, prospective students, and H-1B employers.
Furthermore, a large portion of these applications are filed at entry-level wage classifications. Among cap-subject employers, 46% said that at least one-quarter of their petitions for international students were at Wage Level 1. For petitions on behalf of workers with US advanced degrees, 41% of respondents reported using Level 1 wages in at least a quarter of cases.
Prospective students also deterred by H-1B wage rules
In a related Prospective Students Survey of 611 potential applicants, 6% fewer respondents said they would enrol in US programmes if H-1Bs were awarded by wage level. The effect was more pronounced among those considering bachelor’s and master’s degrees, where 7% reported they would be likely not to enrol under the proposed system. Among prospective PhD students, the deterrent was 2%.
Change in likelihood to enrol under wage-based H-1B system
Source: Institute for Progress and NAFSA: Association of International Educators, as reported in their August–September 2025 survey of international students, prospective students, and H-1B employers.
Survey sample skews toward STEM, PhDs, and large institutions
Of the 1,039 respondents in the Current Students Survey, 49% were PhD candidates, and 26% were postdoctoral researchers. A significant number came from STEM fields: 35% were in physical or natural sciences, 19% in biological and biomedical sciences, and 16% in engineering.
Respondents were enrolled across diverse institutional types, with 27% from private and 73% from public universities. Institutional sizes were reported as 7% small, 38% medium, and 55% large.
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