Canada Election 2025: How 'Bogeyman' Trump could decide the election

In an increasingly polarised Canadian election landscape, it’s not policy but psychology that appears to be shaping voter behaviour. A new National Post poll released on April 16 paints a striking emotional divide: 75% of Conservative voters say they are motivated by hope—for economic revival, lower taxes, and political change—while 60% of Liberal supporters cite fear as their primary motivator, particularly in the face of Donald Trump’s threats to Canada’s sovereignty and trade.

This fear-versus-hope narrative is playing out at the highest levels of leadership, with unelected Liberal leader Mark Carney doubling down on warnings of a Trump-dominated North America, while Conservative challenger Pierre Poilievre pitches a vision of renewal and national pride.

Carney’s Fear Gambit: Trump as the Bogeyman



Since assuming leadership of the Liberal Party in March 2025 with an overwhelming 85.9% internal vote, Mark Carney has made one thing clear: the road to victory in Canada may now pass through Washington. His campaign speeches are peppered with grim warnings about Donald Trump’s second-term agenda—from threats to tear up the USMCA to rhetoric about turning Canada into the “51st state.”

In provinces like Quebec, the fear message is sticking. Forty-four percent of Quebecois voters cited fear as their primary emotional driver in this election, compared to 40% who said hope. The difference, though narrow, reflects Carney’s deliberate strategy of positioning himself as the last firewall between Canadian sovereignty and American encroachment.

“Carney is treating this election like a referendum on Canada’s independence,” says political analyst Léa Moreau. “By invoking Trump, he’s hoping to consolidate the centrist and progressive vote—especially in urban strongholds like Montreal and Toronto.”

Yet critics argue that Carney’s campaign feels more like a crisis management seminar than a national vision. Despite leading the Liberals to 43% in the polls, his advantage is thinning, with Conservatives closing the gap to 38%—a 1% bump from the previous week.

Poilievre’s Hope Offensive: The Optimism Strategy



By contrast, Pierre Poilievre is running what might be Canada’s most emotionally upbeat campaign in a generation. His message? Lower taxes, safer streets, and a government that “trusts Canadians more than it taxes them.” But above all, hope.

According to the National Post poll, 75% of Conservative voters identify hope as their main motivation—a number that dwarfs anything seen in recent Canadian elections.

“The Liberal Party wants you to be afraid,” Poilievre told a crowd in Vaughan last week. “Afraid of Trump, afraid of change, afraid of freedom. But I believe Canada can do better. I believe you can do better.”

His team’s messaging, particularly in key Ontario battlegrounds such as the GTA, London, and Hamilton, is heavily focused on economic empowerment and optimism. Campaign visuals feature smiling families, busy construction sites, and maple leaf-emblazoned dreams of prosperity.

It’s working—at least for now. The Conservatives’ steady rise in the polls is particularly pronounced among suburban middle-class voters, many of whom feel squeezed by rising mortgage rates and stagnant wages. For them, Carney’s apocalyptic tone may feel out of touch.

The US Factor: Trump in the Rearview and Windshield

The elephant—or rather, the eagle—in the room remains Donald Trump. His re-election in 2024 has cast a long shadow across Canadian politics. From threatening retaliatory tariffs to casually suggesting a “continental merger,” Trump has offered Carney a convenient villain and Poilievre a complex challenge.

In a political inversion of the usual Canadian-American dynamic, it is the centre-left that is leaning into nationalism, while the right talks about cross-border cooperation.

Carney, with his background as Governor of the Bank of Canada and later the Bank of England, is no populist—but he’s increasingly deploying nationalist tropes in defence of liberal democracy.

Poilievre, meanwhile, must walk a tightrope: appearing patriotic while not antagonising Trump, whose unpredictability could rattle markets and derail any future Conservative trade strategy.

“It’s a bizarre role reversal,” says University of Toronto professor Althea Gagnon. “Liberals waving the flag and invoking sovereignty, while Conservatives pitch economic pragmatism. It’s 1984—but in reverse.”

What to Watch: Ontario’s Emotional Centre

With Quebec and Alberta largely spoken for, the emotional battleground lies in Ontario. The Greater Toronto Area, with its mix of immigrant communities, swing ridings, and economic anxieties, will likely decide the election.

Here, the emotional split mirrors the national average: hope vs fear, optimism vs anxiety. The question is, which feeling will get people to the ballot box?

So far, Carney’s fear appeal seems to be mobilising older voters and die-hard Liberal supporters. But Poilievre’s message is proving surprisingly resonant among younger, first-time voters looking for change, especially those burdened by debt and disillusionment.

Final Word: A Battle of Feelings, Not Facts
In a country known for moderation and policy debates, Canada’s 2025 election is shaping up to be a referendum on emotion. Carney is betting that fear of a Trump-dominated future will carry the Liberals across the finish line. Poilievre is hoping optimism—and a touch of righteous anger—will propel his Conservatives to power. As Canadians head toward the polls later this year, one thing is clear: this election is less about policy platforms and more about how each side feels about the future. And in a political age increasingly driven by vibes, not vision, feelings might just be the only currency that matters.