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ICJ to Antonio Guterres: Top contenders for Nobel Peace Prize 2025; does Donald Trump stand a chance?

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The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday. The award is considered one of the most anticipated and unpredictable honours.

Experts say the committee usually focuses on lasting peace, international cooperation, and the work of institutions that promote these goals.

The announcement will be made in Oslo, Norway, where the committee will name the laureate who reflects the values of Alfred Nobel, the 19th-century Swedish industrialist who founded the prize.

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Will Trump get the Peace Prize?

There has been speculation about the possibility of US President Donald Trump winning the prize, a discussion partly driven by Trump himself. However, experts who follow the Nobel process say his chances are low despite his involvement in several international peace efforts.

The announcement comes just hours after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire and hostage release deal that could help end the two-year conflict in Gaza.

While Trump has claimed credit for pressuring both sides to reach the deal, the timing makes it unlikely that the Nobel Committee considered it.

The five-member committee held its final meeting on Monday, when it completed the statement explaining its choice, which is usually decided days in advance.

"The Gaza deal has absolutely no significance for the choice of the 2025 laureate because the Nobel Committee has already made its decision," historian and Peace Prize expert Asle Sveen told news agency AFP.

"Trump will not win the prize this year. I’m 100 percent certain," he said.

Also read: Trump hits out at Obama over Nobel Peace Prize win; calls himself more deserving

Who are the contenders?

A total of 338 individuals and organisations have been nominated for the 2025 Peace Prize, but the list remains secret for 50 years. With no clear favourite, several possible names are being discussed in Oslo.

Among them are Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a network of volunteers helping civilians during war and famine; Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny; and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, which monitors elections.

The committee could also choose a laureate that signals its position on global issues, even if it invites criticism from the United States.

Possible choices include UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres , the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), or international courts such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Organisations defending press freedom, such as the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) or Reporters Without Borders (RSF), are also being discussed as potential winners.

Last year’s prize went to Nihon Hidankyo, an organisation of survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings that campaigns against nuclear weapons.

The Nobel Peace Prize includes a diploma, a gold medal, and a $1.2 million cash award.

The economics prize, to be announced on Monday, will conclude the 2025 Nobel season, which has already seen awards for medicine, physics, chemistry, literature, and peace.
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